‘Guns and Butter’ in U.S. Presidential Elections
نویسنده
چکیده
Previous models of the popular vote in U.S. Presidential elections emphasize economic growth and price stability, the role of parties and incumbency, and pre-election expectations for the future. Despite the closeness of the pre-election polls in 2004, formal models instead predict a landslide victory for President Bush. An obvious question is whether this anomaly arises, at least in part, from national security concerns – in particular, the conflict in Iraq. We explore this pre-election anomaly by introducing two opposing electoral forces capturing national security concerns, which for the 2004 election reduces President Bush's predicted vote share. In general, the impact of national security concerns on the vote share of the incumbent (or the incumbent's party) can be substantial, whether positive, as in the 1944 election during World War II, or negative, as in the 1952 election during the Korean war and the 1968 election during the Vietnam war. Authors: Stephen E. Haynes Joe A. Stone Department of Economics Department of Economics University of Oregon University of Oregon Eugene, OR 97403 Eugene, OR 97403 Tel. 541-346-4665 Tel. 541-346-3902 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
منابع مشابه
The Role of Internet in Elections (A case study of the Presidential Election of the USA in 2008)
Internet has found an increasing role in the politics, during the last decade. Today, terms like digital democracy, Internet elections, Internet advertisements (propaganda, social- political Web logging in the internet has become common terms. Internet is getting replaced for the traditional media in politics. The interactive characteristic of this media has changed it to an unrivaled instrume...
متن کاملPriming Ideology: Why Presidential Elections Affect U.s. Judges
U.S. Courts of Appeals judges elevate their dissents for ten months prior to Presidential elections. I develop a theoretical model showing that the salience of partisan identities can explain this pattern. I link judges to their states of residence, and exploit temporal variation in the importance of a state during the electoral season. Dissents are elevated in swing states and in states that c...
متن کاملThe 2004 Presidential Election: A Preview
Similar to Circadian, the moon, and sunspots, U.S. elections occur on a regular cycle. For those in the U.S. this is a natural part of a democracy. However, in other nations, national elections are not necessarily regularly scheduled. In Britain, for example, the prime minister requests the Queen to call elections at a time the P.M. believes is most political advantageous. It cannot be longer t...
متن کامل